tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3319786799012800176.post342086331040082994..comments2023-10-13T03:51:03.655-04:00Comments on Magma Cum Laude: Predictions, Forecasting and EruptionsJessica Ballhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13117925212295349320noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3319786799012800176.post-13135002494211090892010-06-09T20:08:31.103-04:002010-06-09T20:08:31.103-04:00I've been following the news reports with inte...I've been following the news reports with interest - the bit in this post about Trombley kind of got buried in the bottom. (Glad you noticed it, though!) It really just kills me that journalists are so unaware of resources like the USGS and academic researchers that they'll call up this guy for an interview. Then again, it's a good chance for us to speak up.Jessica Ballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13117925212295349320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3319786799012800176.post-48612047902576482252010-06-09T14:39:01.684-04:002010-06-09T14:39:01.684-04:00A reporter finally did an expose on this guy (http...A reporter finally did an expose on this guy (http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/05/20100605arizona-volcano-expert-questioned.html#ixzz0qBORUy7k). GVP has a short discussion of the danger of the related problem of inappropriate creation of alert levels (http://www.volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?faq=07), which Trombley also does.GabbroGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15692384739348483842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3319786799012800176.post-86465880170464113802009-01-18T20:05:00.000-05:002009-01-18T20:05:00.000-05:00Good post.My current job involves stratigraphic 'p...Good post.<BR/><BR/>My current job involves stratigraphic 'prediction' and, like any prediction or forecasting, an awareness of the uncertainties is critical. Sometimes you have a lot of data and uncertainty is reduced (but not eliminated completely, as you point out) and other times you only have a bit of data and the uncertainty is higher.<BR/><BR/>I think a lot of geoscience is 'uncertainty management' ... collecting data, learning about every nook and cranny of a problem ... all to help reduce uncertainty.<BR/><BR/>What isn't communicated too well to the general public is that there are commonly broad range of uncertainties ... it's a matter of degree. But, your post just helped communicate this better!BrianRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04930245080333999989noreply@blogger.com